While correlation is not causation, it is certainly a wink and a nudge in this case. As Donald Trump’s poll numbers soar so the Mexican Peso has been collapsing against the US dollar, and just broke to fresh record lows…
After last year’s annus horribilis that saw the currency shed more than 14 per cent of its value against the dollar, the peso is down an additional 10.5 per cent so far this year – making it the world’s second worst performing major emerging market currency after the Argentine peso, report The FT’s Pan Kwan Yuk and Jude Webber.
Low oil prices have hobbled Mexican president Enrique Peña Nieto’s efforts to open up the country’s energy sector to private investments and forced the government to cut spending and growth forecasts. In addition Mr Peña Nieto has seen his approval ratings sunk to record lows amid anger over his handling of corruption scandals and perceived inability to maintain law and order in Latin America’s second most important economy.
Meanwhile, uncertainty over the timing of the next US interest rate rise and Mr Trump’s recent recovery in the opinion polls against Hillary Clinton have further sapped enthusiasm for Mexican assets.
Combined together, analysts say this mean it’s no longer a question of when the peso will breach the once unheard-of level of 20 to the dollar. It’s when.
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