Australian Dollar:
The Aussie traded within a 30 point range throughout the previous Asian session however the local currency was then bolstered when overnight markets revealed a string of negative economic data out of the US. These reports included unemployment claims, manufacturing data, and new home sales in the US that all came in below expectations, which as a result saw the AUD/USD climb to overnight highs of 0.7791. The Australian dollar has maintained these levels through to the morning and opens stronger today buying 77.78 US cents. With an empty local economic docket on the cards for today the Aussie will again look overseas for any price driving action to end the week.
We expect a range today of 0.7740 – 0.7820
New Zealand Dollar:
Dovish rhetoric from the Reserve Bank Assistant Governor McDermott yesterday has resulted the NZ dollar falling in value against a handful of it major counterparts. During a speech yesterday at a business lunch in Hamilton McDermott indicated that rate rises may be ruled out in the near future, which then saw the NZD/USD drop immediately and reach intraday lows of 0.7534. Economic reports out of the US that missed forecast did help the Kiwi recoup some losses overnight, however the local currency still commences trade much weaker this morning at NZD/USD 0.7592. As no local economic announcements are scheduled for today the NZ Dollar will await US data being released later in the evening for direction.
Great British Pound:
The Cable opens this morning at 1.5057 after concluding a rather tumultuous day of trade yesterday. Retail sales figures were released showing that the total value of sales at the retail level for March came in well below the projection of an increase in 0.4%, printing a disappointing number of -0.5%. As this gauge of consumer spending accounts for a large portion of overall economic activity, this reflects very poorly on the current state of the UK economy and indicates a possible slowdown in growth. The GBP opens at 1.9350 and 1.9816 against the Aussie and Kiwi respectively, and with no upcoming reports to be released the Pound Sterling is expected to remain range bound into the weekend.
We expect a range today of GBP/AUD 1.9310 – 1.9390
Majors:
The Euro has opened much higher this morning against its US counterpart while trending consistently upwards over the entirety of yesterday’s trading session. The 13 bloc currency had a string of negative reports being released yesterday showing both French and German manufacturing and services data coming in below expectations, as well as Spanish unemployment being announced as higher than forecasts. However, this myriad of poor data was then countered by announcements showing a slowdown in the US economy with an increase in unemployment claims over the last week, a slight increase in new home sales throughout March that was below projections, and Manufacturing data that too was unexpectedly poor. The EUR/USD starts the day at 1.0821, and Eurogroup meetings, German business climate reports, and U.S durable goods information will dictate the course of the EUR/USD today.
Data releases:
CAD: BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
EUR: German Ifo Business Climate, Eurogroup Meetings, Belgian NBB Business Climate
JPY: SPPI y/y, All Industries Activity m/m
USD: Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Durable Goods Orders m/m