Of the four scenarios that we laid out yesterday, it appears “exemptions” or “no deal” are now the only ones left on the table for Algiers – neither of which are good for oil prices. As Bloomberg reports, Iran, Libya, and Nigeria have demanded the right to increase production – a solution that makes a Saudi agreement to ‘freeze’ less likely and a “no deal” reaction in Algiers more likely.
“I think it is normal that Iran has the right to increase production to the pre-sanctions level. It is also the right of Libya, Nigeria to increase,” Algerian Energy Minister Noureddine Bouterfa says in interview in Moscow.
“All the solutions are possible” at Algiers talks this mo., Bouterfa says when asked if countries including Iran, Libya, Nigeria may have the opportunity to raise output from current levels within the framework of a freeze deal
“Algeria is ready for any actions to stabilize the market”
Paris meeting Friday w/ Bouterfa, OPEC Sec-Gen, Saudi Oil Minister will “evaluate all actions by Iran, Russia, Algeria, Qatar” to prepare for talks in Algiers
The reaction in markets is to start giving back the US inventory draw gains…
And finally here is the statement of the day so far…
“If we have an agreement in Algiers it’s very good, but if we don’t have an agreement, it’s also good” and there will be an opportunity for more talks at the OPEC meeting in Vienna later in the year
So even if we don’t get a soluition this month, sdtill buy oil please and send prices higher because we could squeeze you again in a few months?
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