Australian Dollar
Expected Range 0.7600 – 0.7700
The Australian Dollar rallied strongly last week hitting 6 month highs hitting 9 month highs and closed the week at 0.7712. The Australian Dollar was supported by a strong unemployment number which fell to 5.7% during the month of March, a positive data set out of China combined with expectations of a deal being done between the world’s largest oil producing countries. The AUD has experienced some volatility early Monday morning after an agreement was not reached currently sits at 0.7668 at the time of writing. Looking forward through the week we will have the Monetary Policy meeting minutes from the last RBA meeting out on Tuesday followed by the RBA Governor Steven’s speaking on Wednesday with the market looking for any indication of what the Reserve bank will be doing at its next meeting in May.
New Zealand Dollar
Expected Range 0.6730 – 0.6830
The New Zealand Dollar bounced around the 69 cent mark against the USD last week and in the end finished the week strongly to close purchasing 69.15 US cents. After profit taking on Thursday the strong data out of China meant that the New Zealand Dollar got a boost from its major trading partner performing well. The New Zealand Dollar opens this morning lower after an agreement was not met by the leading oil producers and currently sits at 0.6881. The market will now look forward to the quarterly CPI data out this morning with the RBNZ looking for a positive number to move it closer to the 12 month target of between 1 and 3 per cent.
Great British Pound
Expected Range 1.8660 – 1.8750
Despite some skittish price action during the early parts of this morning’s session the Great British Pound opens well in line with the levels witnessed during the back of end of last week. Finishing the week with some modest gains when valued against its US Counterpart one of the biggest positives came in the form of stronger CPI growth which showed prices had risen by 0.5 percent last month. Eyeing near-term resistance at levels close to the 1.4200 mark choppy trading conditions are likely to continue for much of today in light of oils persist uncertainty. Opening marginally stronger when valued against the Greenback at a rate of 1.4169 BOE Governor Mark Carney is expected to testify tomorrow evening before the Lords Economic Affairs Committee in London. In other moves the Sterling opens stronger versus the Aussie (1.8499) whilst lower versus the Kiwi (2.0611).
Majors
Expected Range N/A
In a wild start to the new week the Japanese Yen reached a 17 month high while commodity linked currencies across the board plunged. Triggering a substantial shift back into the world’s reserve currency, a flight to safety was the net result after negotiations in Doha between OPEC and other oil producers ended without any agreement on limiting supply. In a move which now threatens to trigger another global rout discussions broke down after Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations failed to agree on an accord unless all members joined, including Iran. In light of the expectations leading into the summit, forex markets came alight upon the open this morning with the Canadian Dollar falling 1 percent whilst the yen added a further 0.5 percent. In what’s proving to be a key dilemma for policy makers who are witnessing stronger currencies in the face of looser monetary settings, the Yens most recent appreciation has won little sympathy after comments from Washington described the upward move as “orderly”. In what’s likely to be a week strongly centred around energy prices the ECB also meets on Friday.