Taiwan is scheduled to release April industrial production (IP) data on 25 May. April IP growth likely slowed to 1.2% y/y from 6.49% in March – marking the softest monthly y/y gain since early 2014 on weak external demand. Total exports may have declined more than the market expected, by 11.7% y/y in April, mainly on flagging mainland China demand. Meanwhile, weak global oil prices likely had a negative impact on certain export items, such as minerals and chemical materials. Total capital goods imports – deemed a key measure of producers’ confidence – likely also stayed in negative growth for the third consecutive month.If the trend persists in H2- 2015, this may indicate a worrying shift lower in manufacturing confidence.

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