FXStreet (Barcelona) – Philip Rush, Research Analyst at Nomura, previews and share the forecast for the UK industrial production data to be released this week.
Key Quotes
“An expected rebound in non-durable consumer goods drives our forecast for manufacturing output to grow by 0.3% m-o-m in May. Absent revisions, this would equate to growth of 0.4% 3m-o-3m, which is stronger than the PMI points to, albeit not by an unusually large margin.”
“Meanwhile, a rebound in gas demand on the national grid during May is also supportive of headline IP. However, despite strong reports of gas extraction to the joint oil data initiative (JODI), we expect the energy effect to be neutralised by the extraction industries. The ONS’s oil and gas assumptions for April had been surprisingly strong relative to the industry data so we are essentially assuming convergence. On balance, we forecast IP growth of 0.1% m-o-m too.”
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