According to the Research Department at BBVA, today’s ADP report showed that the labor market continues to add jobs at a steady rate and they expect a solid NFP on Friday, including gains in average earnings.
Key Quotes:
“The ADP employment report noted a 200K gain in private nonfarm employment in March, compared to February’s 205K increase. The results were in line with consensus and reinforce the positive news in regards to unemployment and labor force participation. Not surprisingly, the only industry in which payrolls declined in March was energy, as has been the case for over a year, according to Moody’s Analytics, which collaborates with ADP in the production of this report.”
“One thing that stood out in the BLS’s February nonfarm payroll report was that average hourly earnings decreased despite improvements in job growth, likely because a lot of the newly generated jobs were in lower-paying service-industry positions. We expect to see this reversed in March with a pickup in wage growth.”
“While the ADP report doesn’t always match the BLS’s nonfarm payroll report, today’s data support our expectation that Friday’s employment figures will show that the economy added jobs at a steady pace slightly above the 200K threshold.”
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